After a shock 1-0 FA Cup final defeat by Crystal Palace, Manchester City face a tense two-game run-in in the Premier League. Thanks to England’s high UEFA coefficient this season, the top five clubs in the final table will qualify for next season’s Champions League (with the Europa League winner potentially adding a sixth). That means City’s immediate goal is a top-five finish. Palace’s cup win grants them a Europa League place, which simplifies things slightly – no extra league spot will “drop down” to 8th as it would have if City had won. In practical terms, a Palace victory means the two Europa League slots go to 6th place and Palace (the FA Cup winners), with a Conference League place to the League Cup winners (Newcastle).
The FA Cup Loss: A Mixed Blessing
Losing at Wembley hurt City’s trophy hopes, but the European implications are straightforward. Crystal Palace – finishing mid-table – take the FA Cup’s Europa League berth. In other words, City cannot “pass down” a cup spot. Had City won the Cup and already qualified for Europe via their league position, then that extra Europa League spot would have gone to 7th place. Now, Palace’s victory seals off that complication – the last guaranteed European spot is simply 7th place. As Sky Sports notes, “if Palace beat City at Wembley, they would qualify directly for the Europa League, meaning the Conference League slot stays with seventh place”skysports.com.
Key point: Palace’s win means City no longer have to worry about an extra Europa spot opening up below 7th. All City must do is finish in the top 5 (or top 6) to secure Champions League football.
What City Must Do: Top Five or Bust
City currently sit with 65 points from 36 games – just outside the automatic CL places. They have two fixtures remaining: vs Bournemouth (at home, 20 May) and Fulham (away, 25 May). These are winnable games, but nothing is guaranteed. City “control their destiny”: two wins in the last two games will guarantee a top-five finish. Even four points (a win and a draw) should suffice given their two-goal superior goal difference (plus a small points cushion) over the chasing pack. One analysis notes City boast “a two-point cushion” over the sixth place (Villa). Put simply, City can clinch Champions League football by taking care of business themselves.
Every point matters – a single slip-up could force City to lean on others. Pep Guardiola has warned that this run-in will be nervous. After the recent draw with bottom-side Southampton he admitted, “It happened. Now, prepare [for Bournemouth and Fulham]… We have three games left… we will need to fight until the end.”. In practical terms, the minimum requirements are clear:
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Win both games: A maximum six points seals a top-five finish (their fate in their own hands).
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Win one and draw one: Four points will almost certainly do the job (City currently lead the “pack” by a couple of points).
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Else: If City slip up, they would need rivals (Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle, Forest) to drop points as well. That’s risky in a tight race with only two fixtures left.
Arsenal’s Result and the Race for Second
Meanwhile, Arsenal’s result last weekend has mathematically locked up the runners-up spot. A 1-0 win over Newcastle on 18 May gave Arsenal 71 points from 37 games. Only City (with two games to play) could match that total. In reality, though, even tying on points wouldn’t guarantee City second place – Arsenal’s goal difference (+34) is a full ten goals better than City’s (+24). In short, Arsenal’s win all but ends the dream of finishing second. City would need Arsenal to capitulate and drop points, while City win out, just to even have a shot. With Arsenal likely to slip up only under extraordinary circumstances, City’s priority is top five, not runners-up.
Impact: Arsenal’s victory means City can at best equal 71 points – and even that is unlikely to flip 2nd place. Instead, City should focus on maximum points, not assuming Arsenal will falter.
Bournemouth & Fulham: Anyone’s Game
City’s final two opponents – Bournemouth and Fulham – are not in danger of relegation nor contending for the title. But that doesn’t make them pushovers. Bournemouth (10th, 53 pts) are having their best season ever, on course for a club-record points tally. They could even dream of Europe: Sky Sports notes “Andoni Iraola’s Cherries… could qualify for Europe for the first time in their history,” and they face City knowing a win could cement their status as giant-slayers. Fulham (54 pts) similarly will play without fear, aiming to break 50+ points.
City mustn’t take these games lightly. As one preview warns, even with a small cushion City “cannot take Bournemouth and Fulham for granted”sportsview.co.uk. These teams will be enthusiastic, with nothing to lose. City’s guards must be up from whistle to whistle – complacency could hand them a crucial point or two.
The 8th-Place Long Shot
In an ordinary year, finishing 8th brings no European prize. However, this season holds a bizarre twist. Chelsea, poised around 6th-7th, are in the Conference League final on 28 May. If Chelsea beat Betis to lift that trophy and finish outside the top six of the league, England’s allocation shifts. According to the Premier League’s breakdown, two scenarios could see eight teams in Europe:
In either case, England would gain an extra Europa League place, pushing Europe-qualification down to 8th place. This would mean: Champions League for PL1–5, Europa League for 6th, FA Cup winner (Palace) and Chelsea, and a Conference League spot for 8th. Crucially, it also assumes Newcastle do finish in the top six. Newcastle’s League Cup (Conference League) berth would then “trickle down” to 8th.
Put simply: if Chelsea win the Conference League and end up 6th or 7th, and Newcastle finish top-six, the PL could send its 8th-placed team into Europe. In that wild case, Bournemouth or Fulham (or Brentford/Brighton) might edge into a continental campaign. It’s a long shot – but mathematically possible.
Stay Focused: No Let-Up for City
All these permutations make the picture complicated, but City’s task is simple: keep winning. Pep Guardiola has reminded players to fight for every point. Even though City’s opponents have little to play for, nothing is guaranteed until it’s done. “We will need to fight until the end,” Guardiola declared. The lesson is clear: City can’t afford to ease off and must treat the Bournemouth and Fulham games as must-wins to clinch a Champions League ticket.
Summary: City’s Champions League fate lies in their own hands. Two wins from two – 6 points – and a top-five finish is secured. Four points would almost certainly suffice with their healthy goal difference. Arsenal’s win all but locks 2nd place (City can only equal 71 points and would lose on goal difference. Palace’s FA Cup victory means a Europa spot has been removed from the equation (no extra spot for 8th under normal conditions. Only an extraordinary combination of Chelsea winning the Conference League and ending outside the top five (with Newcastle in the top six) could drag 8th place into Europe. In all scenarios, City must remain razor-sharp to close out their last two fixtures.
